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在气候变暖的背景下,依据中国东北地区101个气象站点多年逐日气象数据,利用数理统计分析方法,研究了东北地区1971~2007年春玉米生长季气候变化趋势,包括春玉米生长季平均气温、太阳辐射总量和降水量的变化趋势;利用GIS技术分析了东北地区春玉米光温生产潜力及气候生产潜力的时空变化。结果表明,东北地区春玉米生长季气温呈波动上升趋势,其幅度超过全国平均值,太阳辐射呈减少趋势,降水量年际变化较大,有波动下降趋势。在气温不断升高的情形下,东北地区春玉米的光温生产潜力有所增加,但由于各地区间降水的差异,东北地区春玉米的气候生产潜力在各地区变化差异较大,21世纪以来相对于20世纪70年代,南部地区气候生产潜力减少,而中部地区增加。为此,就如何利用东北地区春玉米生产潜力的特点,以及提高春玉米的实际产量提出了一系列建议措施。
Based on the daily meteorological data of 101 meteorological stations in northeastern China in the background of climate warming and using mathematical statistics analysis methods, the climate change trends of spring maize growing season in Northeast China from 1971 to 2007 were studied, including the average temperature of spring maize growing season, Total solar radiation and precipitation. The temporal and spatial changes of light and temperature production potential and climate productivity potential of spring maize in northeast China were analyzed by GIS. The results showed that the temperature of spring maize season showed a rising trend in northeast China. The amplitude of solar radiation was lower than that of the national average and the solar radiation showed a decreasing trend. The annual precipitation varied greatly from year to day and fluctuated downwards. Under the conditions of increasing temperature, the potential productivity of spring maize in northeastern China has increased. However, due to the difference in precipitation among different regions, the potential for climate productivity of spring maize in Northeast China varies greatly from region to region. Since the 21st century, In the 1970s, the potential for climate production in the southern region decreased, while that in the central region increased. To this end, a series of suggestions are put forward on how to make use of the characteristics of spring maize production potential in northeast China and improve the actual output of spring maize.