到明年2月份,美国经济持续增长将整10年,大大超过60年代创造的8年10个月的战后最长增长记录。乐观的经济学家认为,信息技术革命带来的新经济已经使美国经济消灭了繁荣和衰退交替的经济周期。但美国《商业周刊》经济编辑迈克尔·曼德尔最近发表的新著《即将来临的因特网萧条》对此提出了不同的看法。 曼德尔认为,新经济不光是技术革命的产物,也是金融革命的产物,这使得今天的美国经济的波动性远比大多数人认为的要严重得多。正像预测家们在90年代严重低估美国经济的增长潜力一样,他们也低估了美国经济近期发生急剧下滑的可能性。他说,每一个经济时代都有自己独特的运行曲线。在目前的美国经济中,由技术和金融市场推 By February of next year, the U.S. economy will continue to grow by 10 whole years, far exceeding the longest post-war growth record of 8 years and 10 months created in the 1960s. Optimistic economists believe that the new economy brought about by the revolution in information technology has eliminated the U.S. economy from an economic cycle in which prosperity and recession alternate. However, the recent “Internet downturn”, recently published by Michael Mander, Economic Editor of BusinessWeek, put forward a different view. Mandel believes that the new economy is not only a product of the technological revolution but also a product of the financial revolution. This makes the volatility of the U.S. economy far worse than most people think. Just as forecasters seriously underestimated the growth potential of the U.S. economy in the 1990s, they underestimated the possibility of a sharp decline in the U.S. economy in the recent past. He said that each economic era has its own unique operating curve. In the current U.S. economy, pushed by technology and financial markets