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随着我国城市化进程的加快,城市能源供需矛盾日益突出,城市节能降碳工作迫在眉睫。为缓解城市能源危机,对城市的能源消费和能源管理提供决策依据,本文运用基于能值改进的生态足迹模型,对天津市2000—2008年能源消费的能值生态足迹进行时间序列的测度分析,并在此基础上对天津市能源消费的碳排放结构的动态变化趋势进行分析。结果表明,9年间,天津市能源消费的能值生态承载力缓慢增长,从2000年的0.109 hm~2/人增加到2008年的0.234hm~2/人,而能值生态足迹增长迅速,从0.357 hm~2/人增加到0.491hm~2/人,人均生态赤字从0.248 hm~2/人扩大到0.257hm~2/人,万元GDP生态足迹从0.210 hm~2/人下降到0.091 hm~2/人。随着天津市能源消费的增加,能源消费的碳排放量从2000年的2.828t/人增加到2008年的3.971t/人,碳排放强度从1.664 t/万元降低到0.735t/万元。表明天津市在近9年的发展中,能源消费已经远超过承载力水平,碳排放量不断增加,能源消费的不可持续性已经威胁着天津市经济社会发展。针对天津市能源消费的能值生态足迹和碳排放分析结果,提出了促进能源可持续消费模式形成的对策措施,包括调整能源消费结构、降低能源强度、调整经济结构、鼓励可再生能源利用等。
With the acceleration of the process of urbanization in our country, the contradiction between supply and demand of urban energy is becoming increasingly prominent. It is imminent that urban energy conservation and carbon reduction should be carried out. In order to alleviate the energy crisis in the city and provide decision-making basis for energy consumption and energy management in the city, this paper uses the ecological footprint model based on improved energy value to measure the time series of energy consumption ecological footprint in Tianjin from 2000 to 2008, Based on this, the dynamic change of carbon emissions structure of energy consumption in Tianjin is analyzed. The results showed that the emergy ecological carrying capacity of energy consumption in Tianjin increased slowly from 0.109 hm 2 / h in 2000 to 0.234 hm 2 / h in 2008, and the emergy ecological footprint increased rapidly from 0.357 hm ~ 2 / person increased to 0.491 hm ~ 2 / person, the per capita ecological deficit increased from 0.248 hm ~ 2 / person to 0.257 hm ~ 2 / person, and the ecological footprint of 10,000 yuan GDP decreased from 0.210 hm ~ 2 / person to 0.091 hm ~ 2 / person. With the increase of energy consumption in Tianjin, the carbon emission from energy consumption increased from 2.828t / person in 2000 to 3.971t / person in 2008, and the carbon emission intensity decreased from 1.664t / ten thousand yuan to 0.735t / ten thousand yuan. It shows that in the past nine years of development in Tianjin, energy consumption has far exceeded the carrying capacity and carbon emissions have been increasing. The unsustainability of energy consumption has threatened the economic and social development in Tianjin. Aiming at the emergy ecological footprint and carbon emission analysis results of energy consumption in Tianjin, some countermeasures to promote the formation of sustainable energy consumption patterns are put forward, including adjusting energy consumption structure, reducing energy intensity, adjusting economic structure and encouraging the utilization of renewable energy.