目的探讨自动预警系统功效,为提高传染病预警效率提供依据。方法利用重点传染病自动预警系统平台,采取日预警的方式,对甲肝、痢疾、伤寒与副伤寒、麻疹、流脑、乙型脑炎、疟疾与流行性出血热8种传染病在3个县进行预警试点研究。预警界值为P50,同时设置P60、P70、P80和P90作为参考。根据与前3年历史数据比较,当前值超过历史数据P50,系统即发出预警信息。结果2006年8月1日~12月31日,系统共发出有效预警信息256条,不同地区预警信息差异有高度显著性(2χ=363.95,P<0.01);预警界值和预警触发值在常见传染病与少见或低发传染病之间产生预警信息差别较大。结论预警系统非常敏感,不同病种、不同地区应设置不同的预警界值。 Objective To explore the efficacy of automatic early warning system and provide the basis for improving the early warning efficiency of infectious diseases. Methods Eight kinds of infectious diseases of hepatitis A, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid, measles, meningitis, encephalitis, malaria and epidemic hemorrhagic fever were detected in 3 counties Early warning pilot study. The warning threshold is P50 and P60, P70, P80 and P90 are set as reference. According to historical data compared with the previous 3 years, the current value exceeds the historical data P50, the system sends early warning information. Results From August 1 to December 31, 2006, a total of 256 effective early warning messages were issued. The differences of early warning messages in different regions were highly significant (2χ = 363.95, P <0.01). The warning thresholds and early warning triggers were in common There is a big difference between early warning information of infectious diseases and rare or low incidence of infectious diseases. Conclusion Early warning system is very sensitive, different diseases, different regions should be set different pre-warning threshold.