1990年是四年经济周期的谷底年各发达国家业已陶醉于经济景气持续回升乃理所当然之事这一习惯思考之中,因此,也许很难面对世界经济正在减速的现实。以四年为一个周期的经济景气循环学说,似乎已被当做过时的遗物而弃之如敝屣;各国制订经济政策的人们自以为发现了使经济景气持续回升的秘诀而洋洋自得。然而,且慢,以四年为一个周期的四年经济周期学说似乎又重新显示了它的生命力。所谓四年经济周期,就 1990 is the conventional thinking that the developed countries of the four-year economic cycle have been intoxicated with the gradual recovery of the economic sentiment. Therefore, it may be hard to face the fact that the world economy is decelerating. The four-year cycle of economic cycle theory seems to have been abandoned as an outdated relic and people in all countries formulating economic policies feel as if they have found the recipe for a sustained economic recovery. However, and slowly, the four-year business cycle doctrine that takes four years as a cycle seems to have rediscovered its vitality. The so-called four-year economic cycle, it