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以金砖四国2004-2009年货物出口贸易额为研究对象,采用传统恒定市场份额模型(CMS)将货物出口贸易额变化情况分解为需求效应、产品效应、市场效应和竞争效应。通过对比分析发现需求效应是此次金融危机中对四国货物出口最主要的负向影响因素;竞争效应是影响中国、巴西、俄罗斯货物出口的最主要正向因素。除此之外,竞争效应、市场效应又分别是影响印度、俄罗斯货物出口的主要负向因素。
Taking the BRIC trade volume of 2004-2009 as the research object, the traditional constant market share model (CMS) was used to decompose the change of the trade volume of export of goods into demand effect, product effect, market effect and competition effect. Through comparative analysis, it is found that the demand effect is the most important negative factor affecting the Shikoku’s exports in this financial crisis. The competitive effect is the most important positive factor that affects exports of goods in China, Brazil and Russia. In addition, the competitive effect and the market effect are the major negative factors affecting the exports of goods to India and Russia, respectively.