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在经济衰退期间卫生支出为何呈现出多样化?本文采用1995—2011年27个欧洲国家的数据,对可能引起卫生支出变化的政治、经济和卫生体系等关键因素进行评估。纠正之前存在的时间趋势,采用随机效应模型和固定效应模型对2013年欧盟统计局、国际货币基金组织和世界银行的数据进行了测量和评估。研究发现,政府卫生支出的削减与经济衰退的程度关系不大;执政党的意识形态也不会对政府卫生支出产生很大影响。相反,税收每减少100美元,卫生支出将减少2.72美元。在控制可能的混淆因素后,国际货币基金组织贷款国家比非贷款国家更有可能削减政府卫生支出。在欧盟成员国中,与经济条件和政党意识形态等因素相比,向国际金融机构贷款、税收减少以及实施削减政策等可能更会导致政府卫生支出的削减。
Why Health Expenditure Diminishes During the Recession? This paper uses data from 27 European countries from 1995 to 2011 to assess the key factors such as the political, economic and health systems that may trigger changes in health spending. Correct the pre-existing time trend, and measure and evaluate the data of 2013 Eurostat, International Monetary Fund and World Bank using stochastic effect model and fixed effect model. The study found that the reduction of government health expenditure has nothing to do with the extent of economic recession; the ideology of the ruling party will not have a significant impact on government health expenditure. Conversely, for every $ 100 reduction in taxes, health spending will be reduced by $ 2.72. After controlling for possible confounding factors, IMF-lending countries are more likely to cut government health spending than non-lending countries. In EU member states, lending to international financial institutions, tax cuts and implementation of cuts may even result in a reduction in government spending on health, compared to economic conditions and political party ideology.