汶川大地震事先没有预报,死亡的阴影突然间降临,灾区群众毫无思想准备,更没有基本的预防准备,地震观测和预警部门第一时间受到舆论的诘问。但是很遗憾,科学界的回答是:人类至今尚无法预测地震,这是一个世界级的难题。地震无法预测,其实,人类不可知、不可测的事物还非常多,原油价格的预测就是一例。油价年初突破每桶100美元大关时,媒体上一片惊呼, The Wenchuan earthquake did not predict in advance. The shadow of death suddenly came to an end. The masses in the disaster-stricken areas were unprepared for any ideological preparations and did not have any basic preparations for prevention. The earthquake observation and early warning department was the subject of public opinion for the first time. But regrettably, the scientific community’s answer is: humanity is still unable to predict the earthquake so far. This is a world-class problem. Earthquake can not be predicted, in fact, human beings are unknown, unpredictable things are still many, crude oil price forecast is an example. When the price of oil exceeded the $ 100 mark at the beginning of the year, the media exclaimed.