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The Communist Party of China (CPC) first put forward the concept of the“important period of strategic opportunities” in the 16th CPC National Congress in 2002. This period covers the first 20 years of the 21st century. In the past 12 years, many changes have taken place in the world. Whether the important period of strategic opportunities still exists is a big question that must be asked before development planning is implemented.
Rising status
China has been rapidly rising in the past 12 years. Along with the country’s rise come two kinds of “theories” in the international community: One is the “China threat theory” and the other is the “China collapse theory.”
China is often embroiled in disputes with big economies like the United States over trade and the currency exchange rate, and with neighboring countries over border issues. At the same time, China’s internal social and economic development has begun to see a widening gap between the rich and poor, an outdated social structure, as well as mass conflicts. As a result, some people think that China’s period of strategic opportunities has come to an end ahead of schedule.
China has already moved from the margins to the center of the world stage, with its international status rising to an unprecedented high. Particularly, the Chinese economy is contributing more and more and exerting a growing influence on the world economy. There exist conflicts and frictions between China and big powers like the United States, but the mutually beneficial pattern has already taken shape. China’s cooperation with other developing countries is also extensive. The common interests between China and its neighboring countries outweigh their conflicts. Major events like the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the celebration for the 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China in 2009, the 2010 World Expo in Shanghai, as well as China’s effective responses to the massive earthquake in Wenchuan of Sichuan Province, the earthquake in Yushu of Qinghai Province and the mudslide in Zhouqu of Gansu Province from 2008 to 2010, have greatly burnished China’s image and encouraged the Chinese people.
All these prove that despite all the newly emerged conflicts and problems, China’s rapid development is still blessed with strategic opportunities.
Objective judgments
In light of the changes happening within China and in the world, the CPC Central Committee has made two judgments following comprehensive, objective and calm analyses: First, China’s development is still in the important period of strategic opportunities; thus, there is still extensive space for China’s further development. Second, China is faced with a variety of foreseeable and unforeseeable risks and challenges. Based on the two judgments, the CPC proposed to strengthen the sense of opportunity and the sense of crisis. We have unified our minds based on the “two judgments” and “two senses.” Then we’ll be able to remain confident in the face of complex and variable situations. Given the present economic and social development in China as well as the international environment, we must keep a clear mind. We face huge challenges and tests. In terms of the international situation, the global economy is recovering very slowly while the financial crisis is still ongoing. In some countries, the sovereign debt crisis is unlikely to find relief in the short run. Meanwhile, major developed economies are plagued by high unemployment rates, lacking the driving force for economic growth, while emerging economies are under the double pressure of inflation and a slower economic growth pace. The exchange rates of major currencies are sharply fluctuating and commodity prices are on a roller coaster ride. Protectionism in international trade and investment is mounting.
As for the domestic situation, the task to solve systemic and structural conflicts for more balanced, coordinated and sustainable development is becoming increasingly urgent and difficult. New problems keep cropping up in the country’s economic development. For instance, China’s economic growth is under the pressure of slowing down. Its consumer prices remain high. The government’s macrocontrol over the real estate market is at a critical stage. It is difficult for agriculture to realize stable development and for farmers to keep increasing their incomes. Employment is under structural pressure. Some businesses, particularly small businesses, are facing problems in operation. The problem of excess capacity in some industries is becoming more striking. The total consumption of energy is rising too fast. Some long-term conflicts are getting intertwined with short-term issues, while internal and external problems are getting mixed up. Thus, China’s macro-control has to be conducted in a more complex context.
Global changes
We need to realize that China is blessed with many favorable conditions for its stable and rapid economic growth over a relatively long period of time. In the second decade of the 21st century, China is still in the important period. Why?
First, it was pointed out in the 16th CPC National Congress held in 2002 that the first two decades of the 21st century is an important period of strategic opportunities. What is the basis of this phrase?
In the international arena, peace and development remain the themes of the times. Global multi-polarization and economic globalization are moving forward in a zigzagging way. Development of a more balanced economy is making progress with each passing day. The competition in comprehensive national strength is becoming increasingly fierce. In the domestic arena, China has successfully reached the first-step and second-step targets of the “three-step” strategy of modernization. The Chinese people are now living relatively well-off lives. This marks a great success for the socialist system and a new milestone in China’s history. The first two decades of the 21st century are critical for the improvement of the socialist market economy system and the further opening up of the country. Second, the profound changes occurring in today’s world economy and politics are on the whole conducive to China’s peaceful development.
In terms of politics, major changes include the United States’ return to Asia. Washington has adjusted its strategy, extending NATO’s antenna to China’s neighboring areas. Also, the U.S. subprime credit crisis has caused the global financial crisis and later the sovereign debt crisis occurring in some European countries have negatively impacted the world economy and affected the world’s political pattern. Particularly, it has weakened the United States’ control over the world. While the multi-polarization of the world pattern becomes clearer, China insists on the road of peaceful development and holds a greater influence in the world.
In terms of economy, the world economic recovery from the financial crisis has been better than expected, but the real estate sector and the financial sector in major developed countries have been seriously hurt. Family debt rates and unemployment remain high in developed countries, especially in the United States. As a result, there is less demand. Moreover, developed countries’ excessive reliance on the financial industry is unlikely to continue. The global economic pattern that features energy supply from the Middle East, production in Asian countries like China and consumption in American and European countries is to be adjusted. In order to stimulate economic recovery, some countries insist on an expansionary monetary policy. This might lead to even more serious fluctuations in the international financial market and a heavier blow to emerging economies. New breakthroughs are made in science and technology innovation, with an accelerated pace of industrial upgrading. With more complex global competition, China is under heightening external pressure.
While the overall situation remains unchanged, profound changes have hit the world economy and politics. This is the world we are living in today. There are many opportunities as well as challenges.
Third, China’s economic and social development has already reached a new historical point. On the one hand, we are faced with a series of striking conflicts and difficul- ties. For example, although China’s GDP growth rate stays high, its per-capita income is still very low. There exists an imbalance between investment and consumption, with a relatively low consumption level. China’s scientific innovation is lagging behind developed countries. Meanwhile, the country’s input in education, medical services, affordable housing and social welfare is limited, unable to cover everyone equally. The social gap is widening and social conflicts are increasing.
On the other hand, the second decade of the 21st century is equipped with better development conditions than ever before since reform and opening up started in the late 1970s. China’s development road has obvious advantages. After 30 years’ reform and opening up, China’s economic power and comprehensive national strength are on a rapid rise. Since the 16th CPC National Congress, China has abolished the agricultural tax, implemented free compulsory education, and set up a social security system covering both urban and rural residents.
On the whole, China faces more opportunities than challenges. In the face of so many complex challenges, the key is to seek out the opportunities created by the challenges and to be confident in the final success.
Rising status
China has been rapidly rising in the past 12 years. Along with the country’s rise come two kinds of “theories” in the international community: One is the “China threat theory” and the other is the “China collapse theory.”
China is often embroiled in disputes with big economies like the United States over trade and the currency exchange rate, and with neighboring countries over border issues. At the same time, China’s internal social and economic development has begun to see a widening gap between the rich and poor, an outdated social structure, as well as mass conflicts. As a result, some people think that China’s period of strategic opportunities has come to an end ahead of schedule.
China has already moved from the margins to the center of the world stage, with its international status rising to an unprecedented high. Particularly, the Chinese economy is contributing more and more and exerting a growing influence on the world economy. There exist conflicts and frictions between China and big powers like the United States, but the mutually beneficial pattern has already taken shape. China’s cooperation with other developing countries is also extensive. The common interests between China and its neighboring countries outweigh their conflicts. Major events like the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the celebration for the 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China in 2009, the 2010 World Expo in Shanghai, as well as China’s effective responses to the massive earthquake in Wenchuan of Sichuan Province, the earthquake in Yushu of Qinghai Province and the mudslide in Zhouqu of Gansu Province from 2008 to 2010, have greatly burnished China’s image and encouraged the Chinese people.
All these prove that despite all the newly emerged conflicts and problems, China’s rapid development is still blessed with strategic opportunities.
Objective judgments
In light of the changes happening within China and in the world, the CPC Central Committee has made two judgments following comprehensive, objective and calm analyses: First, China’s development is still in the important period of strategic opportunities; thus, there is still extensive space for China’s further development. Second, China is faced with a variety of foreseeable and unforeseeable risks and challenges. Based on the two judgments, the CPC proposed to strengthen the sense of opportunity and the sense of crisis. We have unified our minds based on the “two judgments” and “two senses.” Then we’ll be able to remain confident in the face of complex and variable situations. Given the present economic and social development in China as well as the international environment, we must keep a clear mind. We face huge challenges and tests. In terms of the international situation, the global economy is recovering very slowly while the financial crisis is still ongoing. In some countries, the sovereign debt crisis is unlikely to find relief in the short run. Meanwhile, major developed economies are plagued by high unemployment rates, lacking the driving force for economic growth, while emerging economies are under the double pressure of inflation and a slower economic growth pace. The exchange rates of major currencies are sharply fluctuating and commodity prices are on a roller coaster ride. Protectionism in international trade and investment is mounting.
As for the domestic situation, the task to solve systemic and structural conflicts for more balanced, coordinated and sustainable development is becoming increasingly urgent and difficult. New problems keep cropping up in the country’s economic development. For instance, China’s economic growth is under the pressure of slowing down. Its consumer prices remain high. The government’s macrocontrol over the real estate market is at a critical stage. It is difficult for agriculture to realize stable development and for farmers to keep increasing their incomes. Employment is under structural pressure. Some businesses, particularly small businesses, are facing problems in operation. The problem of excess capacity in some industries is becoming more striking. The total consumption of energy is rising too fast. Some long-term conflicts are getting intertwined with short-term issues, while internal and external problems are getting mixed up. Thus, China’s macro-control has to be conducted in a more complex context.
Global changes
We need to realize that China is blessed with many favorable conditions for its stable and rapid economic growth over a relatively long period of time. In the second decade of the 21st century, China is still in the important period. Why?
First, it was pointed out in the 16th CPC National Congress held in 2002 that the first two decades of the 21st century is an important period of strategic opportunities. What is the basis of this phrase?
In the international arena, peace and development remain the themes of the times. Global multi-polarization and economic globalization are moving forward in a zigzagging way. Development of a more balanced economy is making progress with each passing day. The competition in comprehensive national strength is becoming increasingly fierce. In the domestic arena, China has successfully reached the first-step and second-step targets of the “three-step” strategy of modernization. The Chinese people are now living relatively well-off lives. This marks a great success for the socialist system and a new milestone in China’s history. The first two decades of the 21st century are critical for the improvement of the socialist market economy system and the further opening up of the country. Second, the profound changes occurring in today’s world economy and politics are on the whole conducive to China’s peaceful development.
In terms of politics, major changes include the United States’ return to Asia. Washington has adjusted its strategy, extending NATO’s antenna to China’s neighboring areas. Also, the U.S. subprime credit crisis has caused the global financial crisis and later the sovereign debt crisis occurring in some European countries have negatively impacted the world economy and affected the world’s political pattern. Particularly, it has weakened the United States’ control over the world. While the multi-polarization of the world pattern becomes clearer, China insists on the road of peaceful development and holds a greater influence in the world.
In terms of economy, the world economic recovery from the financial crisis has been better than expected, but the real estate sector and the financial sector in major developed countries have been seriously hurt. Family debt rates and unemployment remain high in developed countries, especially in the United States. As a result, there is less demand. Moreover, developed countries’ excessive reliance on the financial industry is unlikely to continue. The global economic pattern that features energy supply from the Middle East, production in Asian countries like China and consumption in American and European countries is to be adjusted. In order to stimulate economic recovery, some countries insist on an expansionary monetary policy. This might lead to even more serious fluctuations in the international financial market and a heavier blow to emerging economies. New breakthroughs are made in science and technology innovation, with an accelerated pace of industrial upgrading. With more complex global competition, China is under heightening external pressure.
While the overall situation remains unchanged, profound changes have hit the world economy and politics. This is the world we are living in today. There are many opportunities as well as challenges.
Third, China’s economic and social development has already reached a new historical point. On the one hand, we are faced with a series of striking conflicts and difficul- ties. For example, although China’s GDP growth rate stays high, its per-capita income is still very low. There exists an imbalance between investment and consumption, with a relatively low consumption level. China’s scientific innovation is lagging behind developed countries. Meanwhile, the country’s input in education, medical services, affordable housing and social welfare is limited, unable to cover everyone equally. The social gap is widening and social conflicts are increasing.
On the other hand, the second decade of the 21st century is equipped with better development conditions than ever before since reform and opening up started in the late 1970s. China’s development road has obvious advantages. After 30 years’ reform and opening up, China’s economic power and comprehensive national strength are on a rapid rise. Since the 16th CPC National Congress, China has abolished the agricultural tax, implemented free compulsory education, and set up a social security system covering both urban and rural residents.
On the whole, China faces more opportunities than challenges. In the face of so many complex challenges, the key is to seek out the opportunities created by the challenges and to be confident in the final success.