Solar Forcing on Makkah Al-Mukaramah Flash Floods

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  1. Astronomy, Space & Meteorology Department, Faculty of Science, Cairo University, Cairo 1236, Egypt
  2. Presidency of Meteorology & Environment, Jeddah 21499, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
  3. Astronomy and Geophysics Research Institute, King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology, Riyadh 11442, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
  Received: December 10, 2011 / Accepted: January 19, 2012 / Published: February 20, 2012.
  Abstract: Severe solar events manifested by highly energetic X-Ray events accompanied by coronal mass ejections and proton flares caused flash floods in Makkah Al-Mukaramah, Al-Madinah Al-Munawarah and Jeddah. The responses can be prompt, delayed or prompt-delayed, suggesting that the protons entered the troposphere either through the opening of a direct gate in the magnetosphere to the location concerned due to magnetic reconnection, through the polar gates or through those two paths respectively. The authors suggest that there is a magnetic anomaly in Makkah Al-Mukaramah area which makes it liable to be subjected to flash floods. The width of the solar streams determines the width of the gate opened in the magnetosphere via magnetic reconnection and thus narrow streams affect only one location of the three cities while extended width streams can cause flash floods in all of Makkah Al-Mukaramah, Al-Madinah Al Munawarah and Jeddah. In addition, the November 24-26 Jeddah flash flood could be attributed to a prompt event due to a moderately fast solar stream that arrived the earth on those days.
  Key words: Makkah Al-Mukaramah, Al-Madinah Al-Munawarah, Jeddah, coronal mass ejections, X-ray events, flash floods.
   1. Introduction
  Makkah Al-Mukaramah is frequently subjected to flash floods since historical times. The gate of Kabba is highly elevated from the ground as a safe protection from water leakage into its interior. In 1924 and 1941 flash floods surrounded Al-Kabba (Fig. 1). Makkah Al-Mukaramah’ flash floods were studied in an earlier paper [1].
  T
  he Earth responds to solar variability through geomagnetic activity, variations of the high atmosphere, and possibly changes of weather, climate and biota [2].
  The prime importance of the present pioneering paper is to study solar forcing on flash floods affecting Makkah Al-Mukaramah, Al Madinah and Jeddah.
   2. Background
  Table 1 lists the most severe flash floods of Makkah Al Mukaramah for the period 1985-2002 with daily precipitation greater than about 15 mm arranged in descending order.
  


   Fig. 1 The holy Kabba flooded in 1941 and people went swimming around it.
  


  Fig. 2 shows the monthly distribution of the flash flood events. It is evident that flash floods occurred all the year round with the exception of February, May and June. More frequent flashfloods occurred during November, December and January. This increased the hazards during and around the present Hajj months. Of particular interest are the pilgrimage event of January 2005 and Jeddah disasters of November 2009 and 2011.
  


   Fig. 2 Monthly distribution of Makkah Al-Mukaramah flash floods during the period 1985-2002. Note that the severest flash flood occurred in April.
   3. Solar Forcing on Makkah Al-Mukaramah, Al-Madinah Al-Munawarah and Jeddah
  Flash floods in Makkah Al-Mukaramah, Al-Madinah Al-Munawarah and Jeddah in Saudi Arabia are studied in relation to five severe solar events that were marked by the university of Maryland team as important solar X-ray events of class M and X (Fig. 3). The five events were all accompanied by halo coronal mass ejections(ejected pieces of the sun that hit the earth) and proton flares. Details of the solar events are given within Fig. 3. All of those important solar events have caused flash floods in Makkah Al-Mukaramah, Al-Madinah Al-Munawarah and Jeddah. The dates of those flash floods and the amount of rain in mm are also given in Table 2. Solar forcing can have effects on thunder storms and hurricanes.
  It seems that solar forcing of those events can be classified into prompt, delayed and prompt-delayed events.
  (1) Prompt events: like the 20 January 2005 event which caused flash floods on 21-22. Note from Fig. 3 that the X-ray flare lasted for more than two days;
  (2) Delayed events: like the 14th of July 2000 event which caused mild floods on the 24th only in Makkah Al-Mukaramah, the 4th of November 2001 event which
  


  Fig. 3 Five distinguished X-ray flares chosen by Soho team. X-ray and optical flare importance and locations on the sun are given. The number of event is given on diagram and on left of table.
  Table 2 Details of flash floods in Makkah Al-Mukarama, Jeddah and Al-Madinah Al-Munawarah for the five events given in Fig. 3.
  


   caused rain on the 22nd of November and the 28th of October 2003 event which caused rain on 10 and 12 November;
  (3) Prompt-delayed events: multiple events, the first one is a prompt event while the others are delayed like the 8th of November 2000 event, the first flash flood was strong on the 9th of November while the events 12 to 16 November were delayed. The 16th of November was a strong flash flood.
   4. A Proposed Mechanism to Explain the Different Classifications of Flash Floods
  In order to explain the difference between the prompt and delayed events, we propose two solar wind paths.
  (a) In the case of geo-effective coronal mass ejections when the interplanetary magnetic field IMF component is negative in the z direction, a magnetic reconnection between the IMF and the magnetosphere magnetic boundary occurs and a gate gets opened through which particularly relativistic particles find their way to the troposphere. Provided Saudi Arabia is in the day time, those particles ionize the atmosphere. The resulting ions act as nuclei for water vapor condensation thus cumulous clouds form quickly, thunder storms develop and fast flash floods occur.
  (b) The delayed effects are likely to happen when coronal mass ejections hit the magnetosphere, surround it and eject the proton streams from the night side of the magnetotail thus the protons and electrons get injected into the Van Allen belts and then into the two polar caps. Their energy gets dissipated into the polar atmospheres expanding the air thus reducing the pressure as shown in Fig. 4.
  The decline of the Siberian high affects the global general wind circulation leading to thunder storms over Saudi Arabia.
  If some of the protons get through to Makkah-Al Mukaramah or other cities directly from the day side, while others get through the north polar region, then prompt-delayed events occur.
  It is also noticed that some of the flash floods were confined to some location while others were wide spread to the above mentioned three cities.
  In the case of the prompt events, provided the proton stream is narrow and is directed only to one location, e.g., on the 8th of November 2000 event, only Makkah Al-Mukaramah experienced flash floods.
  However in the case of the prompt 20-22 January event which happened around 1430 UT on 22 January, flash floods covered the three destinations, Makkah Al-Mukaramah, Al-Madinah Al Munawarah and Jeddah indicating a wide solar wind stream.
   5. Case Study: Flash Flood in Jeddah 25 November 2009
  Excessive flash floods affected Jeddah on Wednesday 25-26 November 2009 causing severe damages and large death toll [3].
  This flash flood may be attributed to fast solar wind stream emendated from the coronal hole as shown in Fig. 5.
  The solar wind velocity exceeded 550 km/s as seen in Fig. 6. This fast stream might cause a delayed flash flood event. There is a second solar wind stream of slower velocity with negative Bz component of interplanetary magnetic polarity which makes it geo-effective and which occurred around 25-26 November that makes it a likely candidate for the production of prompt Jeddah flash floods. The authors recommend that this second stream opened the magnetosphere and reached Jeddah and Makkah Al Mukkaramah on the 25th of November with more strength over Jeddah. This second choice is most likely as the Presidency of Meteorology & Environment in Jeddah failed to forecast the November 2009 flash flood while it forecasted successfully the 26 January 2011 event four days ahead[4]. This indicates that the November 2009 event was a prompt event while the January 2011 was a delayed event.
  


  (b)
  Fig. 4 North pole view of 925 mb geopotential height showing enhanced low pressure anticyclones in the polar regions that extended to lower latitudes due to proton precipitation: (a) 14 November 2003; (b) 18 November 2003.
  


   Fig. 5 Earth was inside a solar wind stream flowing from the indicated coronal hole. Credit: SOHO Extreme UV Telescope (spaceweather.com).
   6. Discussions
  All of the five strong solar X-ray events studied in this paper were accompanied by halo coronal mass ejections.
  Halo coronal mass ejections have the following effects on earth [1]:
  Compress the Earth’s magnetosphere to about half of its normal distance. The compression may continue to the Troposphere.
  The magnetic lines of force open up provided the interplanetary magnetic field is in the southerly direction, allowing protons to leak inside.
  In addition, proton and electron streams surround the Earth, get injected from the night side into the Van Allen belts and dissipate into the two polar regions. As they enter the polar atmospheres, their energy gets dissipated there, heating the polar air thus it expands and the low pressure regions will be deepened.
  During a highly energetic event, when the magnetic storm is strong, and the aurora extends to lower latitudes indicating that proton and electron streams get dissipated at such lower latitudes, thus the low-pressure anticyclones extend to lower latitudes (Fig. 4).
  The North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) gets reversed in the northern hemisphere and the ENSO events, in the southern hemisphere, happen reversing the direction of the trade winds and triggering El Nino events. This is verified during the Sp?rer minimum(1416-1534 AD), as there were no auroras leading to no El Ninos [5].
  Numerous flash floods occurred during the period
  


   Fig. 6 Time series of solar wind velocity and density for the period November 27-December 1, 2009. The upper panel shows that there are two successive solar wind streams. The second one starts late on the 24th up till 26th of November. 1985-2010. The Event of the 9th of April 1989 was on the top of the list with precipitation 71.1 mm. Something odd was going on the sun on that date that lead to the disappearance of 11 filaments showing either blue or red shifts [6]. Details of this particular event will be discussed elsewhere.
   7. Conclusions
  In the present paper the authors have classified Makkah Al-Mukaramah, Al Madinah Al Munawarah and Jeddah flash floods into, prompt, delayed and prompt-delayed events.
  In the prompt events solar wind streams enter directly to the earth’s atmosphere above the location studied, ionize the atmosphere where the ions serve as nuclei for water condensation on which water drops cluster and promptly form clouds and thunder storms that can’t be predicted by meteorological methods. On the other hand, in the delayed events, the solar wind stream entes the earth through the poles, and dissipate its energy there. The earth’s atmosphere gets hotter,
   expands thus the polar pressure is reduced. This would thus lead to change in the earth’s general wind circulation giving rise to delayed flash floods that can be forecasted.
  In the case of prompt-delayed events, the solar streams enter the earth’s atmosphere from both paths, the direct and polar paths.
  It is suggested that the width of the solar wind stream determines the width of the gate opened in the magnetosphere through magnetic reconnection of the interplanetary magnetic Bz negative component and hence the diameter of the area affected by the proton stream. This explains why some of the flash flood prompt events affect only one location or several locations. For instance, the prompt event of 8 November 2000 affected Makkah Al-Mukkaramah only on 9 November and the 20 of January 2005 prompt event caused flash floods on Al-Madinah Al-Munawarah only on the 21st while it caused wide spread flash floods on Makkah, Madinah and Jeddah the following day. The relativistic proton stream that arrived earth on January 25 was composed of two components as recorded by some neutron monitor stations [7]. A severe geomagnetic storm of Kp = 8 was in progress on 21-22 January. Further details are given in Ref. [1]. Improved models of sun-earth connections have to be investigated with the purpose of calculating the exact earth locations where there would be solar wind stream arrival. Solar wind neutron monitors for detections of fast solar wind put on high elevations in Makkah Al-Mukaramah, Al-Madinah Al-Munawarah and Jeddah are strongly recommended.
   Acknowledgments
  The first author is thankful to her parents.
   References
  [1] S.M. Yousef, A.El. Gazeih, M.El. Nazer, M.A. Harhash, Makkah Al-Mukaramah flash floods related to relativistic particle events and solar forcing mechanism for changing the general wind circulation, in: Proceedings of 8th International Conference on the Geology of the Arab World, Cairo, Egypt, 2006, Vol. 1, p. 377.
  [2] B. Mendoza, The Effects of Space Weather on Hurricane Activity, Recent Hurricane Research-Climate, Dynamics, and Societal Impacts [Online], InTech, 2011, p. 85 www.intewchopen.com/download/pdf/pdfs./15322.
  [3] M.Al. Saud, Assessment of flood hazard of Jeddah area 2009, Saudi Arabia, Journal of Water Resource and Protection 2 (2010) 839.
  [4] Alerts of Previous Rainfall on Jeddah, Presidency of Meteorology & Environment, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia [Online], http://www.pme.gov.sa/.
  [5] S.M. Yousef, El Nino and La Nina during 2200-1200 BC and 622-1467 AD deduced from Nile records as indicators of past and future solar induced climate changes, in: Proceedings of 8th International Conference on the Geology of the Arab World, Cairo, Egypt, 2006, Vol. 1, p. 383.
  [6] National Geophysical Data Center, NESDIS, NOAA[Online] ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/solar_data/solar_filaments/.
  [7] H. Miyasakaa, E. Takahashib, S. Shimodab, Y. Yamadab, H. Tsuchiyab, K. Makishimab, et al., The solar event on 20 January 2005 observed with the Tibet YBJ neutron monitor observatory, in: 29th International Cosmic Ray Conference, Pune, 2005, pp. 241-244.
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