贝叶斯方法论(Bayesian methodology)或贝叶斯主义(Bayesianism)早在上世纪20—30年代就被提出,直到上世纪80—90年代才逐渐成为科学哲学领域的一个势头强劲的学派。贝叶斯主义又叫做“主观主义”(subjectivism)或“私人主义”(personalism)。其理论特征主要有二:其一是把概率解释为一个人的“置信度”(degree of belief),其二是把贝叶斯公式看作根据经验改变置信度的方式。 Bayesian methodology or Bayesianism was first proposed in the 1920s and 1930s and it was not until the 1980s and 1990s that it gradually became a powerful school of philosophy in science. Bayesianism is also called “subjectivism” or “personalism.” There are two main theoretical features: one is to interpret the probability as one’s “degree of belief,” and the second is to think of the Bayesian formula as a way of changing confidence based on experience.