交通环境承载力是衡量城市交通可持续发展的一个关键指标,是制定城市交通规划和交通政策的依据和基础。基于模糊物元理论和熵权法构建交通环境承载力预警模型,对2007—2014年北京市交通环境承载力水平进行评价,并通过障碍因素诊断模型对北京市交通环境承载力的主要障碍因素进行识别。结果表明:2007—2014年北京市交通环境综合承载力水平有所提升,但提升幅度不大;交通环境资源承载力和交通环境污染承载力是限制北京市交通可持续发展的主要限制因素,且交通环境资源承载力障碍度有逐年攀升的趋势;北京市交通环境综合承载力的主要障碍因子包括可吸入颗粒物年日均值、二氧化氮年日均值、机动车保有量密度、建成区路网密度、公共交通线路密度,特别值得关注的是,近年来机动车保有量密度的障碍度逐年攀升,已超过交通环境污染因子成为制约北京市交通环境可持续发展最大的障碍因子。 The carrying capacity of traffic environment is a key indicator to measure the sustainable development of urban transport and is the basis and basis for formulating urban transport planning and transport policy. Based on fuzzy matter element theory and entropy method, an early-warning model of traffic environment carrying capacity was constructed to evaluate the transport environmental carrying capacity of Beijing from 2007 to 2014. The main obstacles to the transport environmental carrying capacity of Beijing Recognize. The results show that the overall carrying capacity of traffic environment in Beijing increased from 2007 to 2014, but the improvement was not significant. The carrying capacity of traffic environment and the carrying capacity of traffic environment pollution were the main limiting factors to the sustainable development of transport in Beijing. The barrier of resource carrying capacity of traffic environment tends to increase year by year. The main obstacle factors of the comprehensive carrying capacity of traffic environment in Beijing include annual average value of respirable particulate matter, daily average of nitrogen dioxide, vehicle population density, road network density of built-up area , The density of public transport routes is of particular concern. In recent years, the obstacle degree of vehicle ownership density has been increasing year by year. Exceeding traffic pollution factors has become the biggest obstacle to the sustainable development of transport environment in Beijing.