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目的估计芜湖市男男性行为者(MSM)人群规模,为芜湖市艾滋病防治策略的制定提供科学依据。方法利用捕获-再捕获和乘数法对芜湖市MSM人群规模进行估计。结果应用捕获-再捕获方法得出芜湖市MSM人群为1 130人,其可信区间是(844～1 416);应用乘数法得出芜湖市6处调查场所(KTV1、KTV2、酒吧、公园、棋牌室1和棋牌室2)的MSM人群规模分别是1 325、1 648、1 200、1 456、1 128和1 429人。结论捕获-再捕获和乘数法对MSM人群规模估计易操作,2种方法可以相互印证,且用时短,费用低,适合目前经济形势下艾滋病高危人群规模估计。
Objective To estimate the population size of MSM in Wuhu City and provide a scientific basis for the development of AIDS prevention and control strategies in Wuhu City. Methods The capture-recapture and multiplier method were used to estimate the MSM population in Wuhu city. Results Using the capture-recapture method, the population of MSM in Wuhu City was 1 130, with a confidence interval of (844-1 416). Using the multiplier method, we obtained the survey sites of KTV1, KTV2, bars and parks , Chess Room 1 and Chess Room 2) were 1 325, 1 648, 1 200, 1 456, 1 128 and 1 429 respectively. Conclusion The capture-recapture and multiplier method are easy to operate for estimating MSM population size. The two methods can verify each other and are short in time and low in cost, which is suitable for the scale estimation of MSM in the current economic situation.