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●从近几个月各项指标的情况看,经济增长呈现出企稳的迹象,未来中国经济仍不乏增长动力。2011年中国经济增长进一步加快的可能性不大,而有望呈现出经济增速较今年略微下降的软着陆态势。●“包容性增长”是中央对下一阶段中国经济发展目标的总体概括,它强调协调、普惠、科学的经济增长方式,亦是“十二五”规划所追求的经济发展方式。这份规划建议意味着改革开放以来,中国社会经济发展将进入一个重大的转折期,从强调经济增长速度转向关注经济发展方式,从追求国民生产总值到增加国民收入水平。●面对日趋复杂的外部环境,人民币兑美元面临的升值压力可能会在相当长的时间内存在。未来,中国将继续以我为主,按照合理节奏,主动完善有管理的浮动汇率制度。预计短期内人民币兑美元汇率仍将会“在小幅波动中上涨”;长期来看,人民币兑美元汇率双向波动的特点将愈发明显,波动区间也将逐步扩大。●上调存贷款利率使得商业银行净利差短期内趋于扩大;人民币汇率弹性增强一定程度上将使商业银行外汇头寸合理配置难度加大;随着对外直接投资连年快速增长,商业银行开展人民币跨境结算以及为中资企业“走出去”提供一揽子商业银行和投行业务面临较大的发展机遇;产业结构调整将催生商业银行信贷投向转型;商业银行宜进一步推进区域间的协调发展。
● In light of the indicators in recent months, economic growth shows signs of stabilization. In the future, there is still no shortage of growth momentum in China’s economy. It is unlikely that China’s economic growth will further accelerate in 2011, and it is expected to present a soft landing with a slight decline in economic growth over the previous year. ● “Inclusive Growth” is the central general outline of the goal of China’s economic development in the next phase. It emphasizes the coordinated, inclusive and scientific mode of economic growth as well as the economic development pursued by the “12th Five-Year Plan” the way. The planning proposal means that since the reform and opening up, China’s social and economic development will enter a major turning point, from stressing the pace of economic growth to focusing on economic development mode, from the pursuit of gross national product to increase the level of national income. ● Facing an increasingly complicated external environment, the pressure of RMB appreciation against the US dollar may exist for a long period of time. In the future, China will continue to give priority to me and take the initiative to perfect the managed floating exchange rate system at a reasonable pace. In the short term, the exchange rate of Renminbi against the U.S. dollar will still be “rising in small fluctuations”. In the long run, the two-way fluctuation of the exchange rate of Renminbi against the U.S. dollar will become more obvious and its fluctuation range will gradually expand. ● Raising the interest rate on deposits and loans will make the net interest spread of commercial banks tend to expand in the short term; the flexibility of RMB exchange rate will make it more and more difficult for commercial banks to rationalize the allocation of foreign exchange positions. With the rapid growth of OFDI in recent years, Settlement and provision of a package of commercial banking and investment banking services to Chinese-funded enterprises “going global” will face greater opportunities for development; industrial restructuring will spur the credit transformation of commercial banks; and commercial banks should further promote the coordinated development among regions.