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鉴于我国尚无完整的灾害损失统计制度和地震快速灾情统计指标体系,四川汶川8.0级地震对我国灾害损失统计制度方法提出了新的挑战。本文从完善统计制度和方法的角度出发,基于因子分析模型,通过模型的不断改进,试图对众多灾损指标进行多步降维处理,在尽量保持信息量丢失最少的前提下,反复比较多个模型间的有效性和一致性,筛选出稳定的、有效的重要灾损指标,构建了中国地震快速灾情统计指标体系,并以四川省138个受灾县(市、区)的数据对所建地震灾情快速反应统计指标体系进行了实证分析。结果表明:所建中国地震灾情快速反应指标体系具有简便易行、代表性强、时效性高的优势特征,与中国地震局公布的地震烈度图保持了一致性。
In view of the fact that there is no complete statistical system of disaster losses and statistical index system of rapid earthquake disaster in our country, the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake posed new challenges to the statistical method of disaster loss in our country. This article from the perspective of improving the statistical system and method, based on factor analysis model, through continuous improvement of the model, trying to multi-step dimensionality reduction of many disaster indicators, while maintaining the least amount of information loss under the premise of repeated more The validity and consistency of the models were tested, and the stable and effective indicators of major disasters were screened out. The statistical indicator system of the rapid earthquake disaster in China was constructed. According to the data of 138 affected counties (cities and districts) in Sichuan Province, Disaster response rapid response statistical index system empirical analysis. The results show that the proposed rapid response indicator system for earthquake disaster in China is characterized by its simple, easy-to-use, highly representative and time-efficient features, which is consistent with the seismic intensity map published by China Seismological Bureau.