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通过对煤矿深部开采沉陷的结构力学模型研究,提出了盆地水平煤层地表沉陷的理论预测模型,给出了整体和分步两种近似计算方法。在变动煤层开采深度和工作面长度的条件下,采用数值模拟方法对相关的数据进行了拟合计算对比,并基于现场沉陷观测数据对模型进行了验证。新模型方法结合力学模型计算得出开采沉陷预计参数,可以针对上覆岩层的力学参数对所得预测数据给出合理的力学解释,摆脱了经典预计模型概率积分法只依靠统计方法预测结果的缺陷,可为深部安全开采和地表沉陷的预测与控制,提供可靠的科学依据。
Through the study of the structural mechanics model of deep mining subsidence in coal mines, the theoretical prediction model of surface subsidence in horizontal coal seams in the basin is put forward, and two approximate calculation methods of whole and sub-step are given. Under the conditions of changing coal mining depth and working face length, the numerical simulation method was used to compare and match the related data, and the model was verified based on the observation data of the site subsidence. The new model method combined with mechanical model to calculate the predicted parameters of mining subsidence can give a reasonable mechanics explanation for the obtained prediction data according to the mechanical parameters of the overlying strata and get rid of the defect of the classical prediction model that the probability integral method only relies on the statistical method to predict the results. It can provide a reliable scientific basis for the prediction and control of deep safe mining and surface subsidence.