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[目的]分析我国乙脑流行趋势,探讨GM(1,1)统计模型在疾病发病预测中的应用,为预防和控制乙脑疫情提供准确和科学的依据。[方法]利用我国1990~2009年乙脑发病率资料,运用GM(1,1)模型对其进行拟合和预测。[结果]1990~2009年全国乙脑发病率实际值和预测值吻合程度较好,拟合精度为Ⅰ级。预测2010~2012年乙脑发病率分别为0.25/10万、0.23/10万、0.20/10万。[结论]运用GM(1,1)模型对乙脑发病进行预测是可行的,该模型的拟合和预测效果较好
[Objective] To analyze the epidemic trend of Japanese encephalitis in China, discuss the application of GM (1,1) statistical model in predicting disease incidence, and provide accurate and scientific evidence for preventing and controlling the epidemic of Japanese encephalitis. [Method] The incidence of Japanese encephalitis from 1990 to 2009 was used to fit and predict the incidence of Japanese encephalitis using GM (1,1) model. [Results] The actual value of the incidence of Japanese encephalitis in 1990 ~ 2009 was in good agreement with the predicted value, and the fitting accuracy was grade Ⅰ. The incidence of Japanese encephalitis from 2010 to 2012 is predicted to be 0.25 / 100,000, 0.23 / 100,000, 0.20 / 100,000 respectively. [Conclusion] It is feasible to predict the incidence of Japanese encephalitis by using the GM (1,1) model. The model has good fitting and predictive effects