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目的 :了解钩虫种群传播动力学特征及化疗对其种群传播的影响。方法 :运用数学模型模拟两组人群钩虫感染的种群传播动力学。结果 :显示两组人群钩虫感染的年龄 -感染率和年龄 -感染度总趋势随年龄增长而上升 ,钩虫种群在人群中呈负二项分布 ( Ka=0 .2 89,Kb=0 .2 0 6) ;虫荷与产卵量呈非线性关系 ,存在密度依赖限制作用 ( Za=0 .919,Zb=0 .899) ,基本繁殖率分别为 Ra=2 .153和 Rb=1.872 ;一次化疗 A组和 B组人群阴转率分别为 75.3%和 97.7% ,EPG分别下降92 .7%和 98.6% ,两组人群分别存在再感染。结论 :R值超过传播阈值 ( R0 =1) ,表明当地钩虫感染呈地方性稳定流行 ,在 R值高的流行区化疗遇到的难度较 R值低的流行区大 ,由于再感染 ,一次化疗的效果在长期内得不到巩固 ,在疗效考核中 ,感染度较感染率为更准确合理的指标。
OBJECTIVE: To understand the dynamics of transmission of hookworm population and the effects of chemotherapy on its population spread. Methods: The mathematical model was used to simulate population dynamics of hookworm infection in two populations. RESULTS: The overall age-prevalence and age-prevalence tended to increase with age with hookworm infection in both groups, with a negative binomial distribution in the population (Ka = 0.89, Kb = 0.20 (Za = 0.199, Zb = 0.898). The basic reproductive rates were Ra = 2.153 and Rb = 1.872, respectively. The first chemotherapy The negative conversion rates of group A and group B were 75.3% and 97.7%, respectively. The EPG decreased 92.7% and 98.6% respectively. There was re-infection in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: The R value exceeds the threshold of transmission (R0 = 1), indicating that the local hookworm infection is endemic and stable. Chemotherapy in endemic areas with high R values is more difficult than the low R area. Because of re-infection, primary chemotherapy Of the effect in the long term can not be consolidated in the efficacy evaluation, the infection rate is more accurate and reasonable indicators of infection.