用两步预测的数学模型,先预测成人发病率,后预测全体居民发病率。以逐步回归前向法从36发个气象因子中选出4 个重要因子建立方程。用此方程计算,13年复测及4年预测的成人理论病率所得的结果,与实际发病率相符。然后,以另一公式由成人理论发病率推算全体居民发病率,效果满意。 With the mathematical model of two-step prediction, we first predict the adult morbidity and then predict the morbidity of all residents. The gradual return to the law from the 36 sent meteorological factors selected four important factors to establish the equation. Using this equation, the results obtained from the 13-year retest and the 4-year predicted adult theoretical prevalence rate are consistent with the actual incidence. Then, using another formula, the morbidity rate of adult residents is calculated from the theoretical incidence of adults and the result is satisfactory.