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本文假定在当前生产要素利用率条件下,由于投入的要素存在着错配,产出未达到最大,只要改变投入要素的配置,在投入要素总量不变的前提下,就可实现产出的最大。将实物资本与人力资本达到最佳配置比例时达到的产出水平,定义为潜在产出,而实际产出对潜在产出的偏离就是潜在损失或是效率损失。以MRW模型为基础,基于实物资本和人力资本合理配置视角,对中国1978—2011年间的潜在产出和潜在经济增长率进行测算,结果表明:两种资本的产出弹性之比为2.53,远远低于其存量之比9.53;潜在产出曲线明显位于实际产出曲线之上且两条曲线的差距越来越大,说明潜在损失为正且绝对额越来越大;1978—2011年时段潜在产出年均增长率比实际产出年均增长率高出0.04%;潜在损失变化的阶段特征反映出各时段两种资本之比偏离最佳配置比例的程度存在显著的差异。
This paper assumes that under the conditions of the utilization of the current factors of production, due to the mismatch of the input factors, the output does not reach the maximum, as long as the change in the allocation of input elements, input variables in the total amount under the premise of unchanged maximum. The level of output reached when the optimal ratio of physical capital to human capital is reached is defined as potential output, while the deviations of actual output from potential output are potential losses or loss of efficiency. Based on the MRW model and based on the rational allocation of physical capital and human capital, the potential output and potential economic growth rate of China during 1978-2011 are measured. The results show that the ratio of output elasticity of the two types of capital is 2.53, Much lower than the ratio of its stock 9.53; potential output curve is clearly above the actual output curve and the gap between the two curves is growing, indicating that the potential loss is positive and the absolute amount of more and more; 1978-2011 period The average annual growth rate of potential output is 0.04% higher than the average annual growth rate of actual output. The characteristics of the stage of potential loss change show that there is a significant difference between the two kinds of capital ratios deviating from the optimal allocation ratio in each period.