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随着“促转变”取代“保增长”成为宏观经济调控的首要任务,2010—2011年中国财政政策在上两年危机应对思路的基础上进行了相应调整。在新任务的要求下,财政政策不仅承担了扩大内需、保持经济增长的任务,还成为促进结构调整、发展方式转变的重要举措。然而,从现实情况看,复杂的经济形势和体制性约束的存在,不仅使财政政策难以取得预期效果,反而进一步加大了宏观调控的难度。本报告将结合2010—2011年积极财政政策的实施情况,从政策的作用机制和效果出发,对中国经济体存在的体制性约束和结构性矛盾进行分析。基于这个角度,本报告重点解释了积极的财政政策难以达到预期效果的根本原因,并提出了一些应对政策困境的对策建议。
With “promoting transformation” and “replacing growth” as the primary tasks of macroeconomic regulation and control, China’s fiscal policy has been adjusted accordingly in 2010-2011 on the basis of the two years of crisis response. Under the requirements of the new mission, the fiscal policy has not only assumed the task of expanding domestic demand and maintaining economic growth, but has also become an important measure to promote structural adjustment and the transformation of the mode of development. However, from reality, the complicated economic situation and the existence of institutional constraints not only make it difficult for fiscal policy to achieve the expected results, but also further increase the difficulty of macro-control. Based on the implementation of the proactive fiscal policy in 2010-2011, this report will analyze the institutional constraints and structural contradictions existing in the Chinese economy from the perspective of the mechanism and effectiveness of the policy. Based on this perspective, this report focuses on explaining the fundamental reasons why it is difficult for an active fiscal policy to achieve the desired results and proposes some countermeasures and suggestions for coping with the policy dilemma.