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目的探讨居民感染率与血防数据间的灰色关联度,指导不同流行疫区血防措施的选择。方法整理2009-2012年常德市各县区血防数据,选取有代表性的指标,建立评价指标体系,运用熵值-灰色关联度模型对各指标与居民感染率之间的关联度进行量化分析,并根据主要控制指标得出不同流行类型疫区的主要血防措施。结果津市、汉寿主要控制指标为家畜感染率E3(0.144)、垸外有螺面积E2(0.143),澧县、安乡主要控制指标为城市化水平E5(0.224)、血防知识知晓率E8(0.125),鼎城区、临澧县主要控制指标为三格式厕所比例E7(0.137)、家畜感染率E3(0.140)等。结论数理模型对于分析疫情数据与居民感染率之间的相关关系、选择调控措施、优化防控模式等方面具有指导和借鉴意义。
Objective To explore the gray relational grade between residents’ infection rate and blood-fire prevention data and to guide the choice of blood-prevention measures in different endemic areas. Methods The data of blood count and defense in all counties of Changde from 2009 to 2012 were collected, representative indexes were selected, and the evaluation index system was established. The relationship between each index and residents’ infection rate was quantified by using the entropy-gray relational degree model, According to the main control index, the main blood-precautionary measures of epidemic areas of different epidemic types were obtained. Results The main control indexes of Jin City and Hanshou were E3 (0.144) and E2 (0.143), and the main control indexes of Yuxian and Anxiang were E5 (0.224) and E8 (0.125). The main control indicators of Dingcheng District and Lintao County are E7 (0.137) for three-style toilets and E3 (0.140) for livestock infection. Conclusion The mathematical model is of guiding and referential significance for analyzing the correlation between epidemic data and resident infection rate, selecting control measures and optimizing prevention and control modes.