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1959年Mueach根据化学反应原理,提出了一组流行病学催化模型(Catalytic Epidemic Model),即将人群中的易感者比作原始反应物,用“感染力”表示催化剂,假设某疾病以一恒定“感染力”作用于人群,那么随时间变化,易感者将逐步转变成感染者(生成物分子)。应用这一类似化学中催化反应的过程,推导出一定的数学方程,描述疾病流行特征,由“感染力”定量测知传染病在人群中的传播速度,对于寻找流行因素,制订防治对策乃至评价防治效果均有较大意义。本文选择了王海涛,米尔英等人对甲型肝炎中发区的北京和乙型肝炎低发区的山西省的资料,用催化模型进行拟合分析,结果如下:
In 1959, Mueach put forward a series of Catalytic Epidemic Model according to the principle of chemical reaction, that is, comparing the susceptible person in the crowd with the original reactant and expressing the catalyst by “infectivity”. Suppose a certain disease is constant “Infectious power” acts on the population, then over time, susceptible individuals will gradually become infected (gene products). Applying the process of catalytic reaction in similar chemistry, some mathematical equations are deduced to describe the epidemiological features of diseases. The “infectious power” is used to quantitatively measure the speed of transmission of infectious diseases in the population. For the purpose of finding epidemic factors, formulating prevention and control measures and even evaluating Prevention and treatment are of great significance. This article chooses Wang Haitao, Millie et al. To analyze the data of Shanxi Province in Beijing and Hepatitis B-low incidence areas of Hepatitis A in the area of incidence, and use the catalytic model to conduct the fitting analysis. The results are as follows: