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本文研究越南在经济变革过程中的出口业绩。本文分析的主题是,国内政策转变和世界贸易格局变化在决定出口的趋势与格局方面所起的互补作用。这种分析提出了这样的明显证据:当市场力量被释放出来(尽管仍受到一定程度的约束)时,各种专业化模式必然是正如标准贸易理论所预言的那样。相反,没有任何证据表明,在改革的早期阶段,国家居间促成的努力确实对制成品出口的新格局产生了影响。越南的出口业绩显得很引人瞩目,特别是当我们考虑到其改革过程的性质和在改革头10年期间美国对其实行了贸易禁运,以及它过去对苏联集团市场的严重依赖时。
This article studies the export performance of Vietnam in the process of economic transformation. The theme analyzed in this article is the complementarity between the changes in domestic policies and changes in the pattern of world trade in deciding the trend and pattern of exports. This analysis raises the obvious evidence that when market forces are freed (albeit to some degree), the patterns of specialization must necessarily be as predicted by standard trade theory. On the contrary, there is no evidence that, during the early stages of the reform, the intermediary efforts at the national level did have an impact on the new pattern of manufactured exports. Vietnam’s export performance is striking, especially when we consider the nature of its reform process and the United States imposition of a trade embargo on it during the first decade of reform and its past reliance on the markets of the Soviet bloc.