针对平均故障工作时间数据样本量少的特点,提出利用灰色Verhulst模型预测电子装备故障;又针对灰色Verhulst模型存在预测精度不高的问题,研究了灰色Verhulst模型参数的优化方法。通过实际试验数据对2个模型进行了仿真验证,并基于灰色关联度对2个模型的模拟预测精度进行了比较分析,结果表明:基于灰色Verhulst优化模型适合于电子装备故障预测,并具有较高的拟合预测精度。 In view of the characteristics of small sample data of average failure working hours, this paper proposes the use of gray Verhulst model to predict electronic equipment failure. In addition, the gray Verhulst model has low prediction accuracy, and the optimization method of gray Verhulst model parameters is studied. The two models are verified by the actual experimental data, and the simulation prediction accuracy of the two models is compared based on the gray relational degree. The results show that the gray Verhulst optimization model is suitable for the electronic equipment fault prediction and has higher Fitting prediction accuracy.