基于实测年最不利施工洪水过程,考虑导流建筑物泄流能力的随机性,构建堰前年最高水位随机模拟计算模型,提出以堰前年最高水位的概率分布计算施工导流风险的方法.同时,应用最小信息熵准则判别年最高堰前水位样本最优的概率分布类型,克服了假设检验有时会接受多种概率分布类型的不足.最后,通过工程实例比较分析随机模拟方法的计算结果,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性,为施工导流风险分析提供了新的途径. Based on the most unfavorable construction flood in the year measured, considering the randomness of discharge capacity of the diversion structure, a stochastic simulation model of the maximum water level in the previous year of the weir is constructed, and a method of calculating the risk of construction diversion with the probability distribution of the highest water level in the previous year of the weir is proposed. The minimum probability of information entropy criterion is used to determine the optimal type of probability distribution before the weir, which overcomes the shortcoming that hypothesis testing sometimes accepts multiple probability distribution types.Finally, through the comparison and analysis of the calculation results of the stochastic simulation method, The feasibility and effectiveness of this method provide a new way for risk analysis of construction diversion.