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本文利用DLS模型,在中国的9个土地利用分区上分析了栅格水平上土地利用变化的机理,设定了土地利用时空格局变化的不同情景,模拟了基准情景和发展生物能源政策情景下各土地利用分区2010年～2025年土地利用时空格局变化。从发展生物能源情景的模拟结果,可以看出,在各种影响因素的综合作用下,各种土地类型之间相互竞争及其在空间分配上的演替规律。结果表明:发展生物能源情景下内蒙古及其沿线区、黄淮海区和黄土高原区的土地利用变化都有较大的变化,而东北区变化不明显,基本处于平稳状态。从整体来看,林地在各区都有不同程度的增加。模拟结果可为决策者制定土地利用规划提供科学依据。
In this paper, we use DLS model to analyze the mechanism of land use change at the grid level in 9 land-use sub-regions in China, and set different scenarios of land-use change in space-time pattern. Simulate the scenarios of baseline scenario and development of bioenergy policy Land-use zoning Spatial-temporal pattern of land use change from 2010 to 2025. From the simulation results of developing bioenergy scenarios, we can see that under the combined effect of various factors, the competition between various land types and their succession rules in the spatial distribution. The results show that the land use changes of Inner Mongolia, the Yellow River, the Huaihe River and the Loess Plateau have a great change under the scenario of bioenergy development, while the change of Northeast China is not obvious, and basically stable. Overall, the area of woodlands has increased in varying degrees in all districts. The simulation results can provide a scientific basis for decision-makers to formulate land-use planning.