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灰色系统理论的研究对象是不完全确定系统,在这个系统中,元素的部分信息已知,部分信息未知。在已知部分信息的条件下,经过特殊的方法处理与挖掘之后,使得整个系统得到确切描述和认识。变形监测的累积观测数据作为离散序列,本身就具有灰色的性质,因此灰色系统理论可以有效地应用于土地工程中大型控导工程的变形监测,土质坝体和治沟造地边坡稳定性监测,大坝变形监测等分析预报中,建立众多预测模型以及预警系统,可以有效降低灾害发生的几率,对灾害发生起到了防范于未然的作用。目前,利用GPS系统进行变形监测是一种自动化程度高、精度高的技术手段。本文从灰色建模与灰色预测的原理入手,分析了GM(1,1)模型的特点,介绍了模型的计算过程。并结合西南某大坝的GPS监测实例,以MATLAB为工具,使用GM(1,1)模型对处理的GPS监测数据进行了模拟和分析,并与实测的数据作了对比分析,判断建立的GM(1,1)模型的稳定性和可靠性。
The research object of gray system theory is not completely determine the system, in this system, part of the information is known, some of the information is unknown. Under the condition of knowing part of information, after the special method is processed and excavated, the whole system can be exactly described and recognized. Therefore, the gray system theory can be effectively applied to the deformation monitoring of large-scale pilot projects in land engineering, and the monitoring of the stability of soil-based dam and trench-dredging slopes , Dam deformation monitoring and other analysis and prediction, the establishment of a number of prediction models and early warning systems can effectively reduce the risk of disasters and play a preventive role in the event of a disaster. At present, the use of GPS system deformation monitoring is a high degree of automation, high precision technical means. This paper starts with the principles of gray modeling and gray prediction, analyzes the characteristics of GM (1,1) model, and introduces the calculation process of the model. Combined with the GPS monitoring example of a dam in southwest China, the GPS monitoring data processed and simulated by the GM (1,1) model are simulated and analyzed by using MATLAB as a tool, and compared with the measured data to judge the established GM (1,1) model of the stability and reliability.