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为了探索空中危险接近的形成过程与反馈机制,运用系统动力学的方法深入分析了空中危险接近影响因素间的复杂相互作用和回馈效应,建立了空中危险接近发生机理的动态模型,包括管制服务、人力资源和安全三大子系统,利用Vensim软件对其进行模拟仿真,可预测不同场景下空中危险接近的变化趋势。结果表明:乐观场景时,2005—2015年空中危险接近数量呈缓慢增长趋势,2015年之后保持不变,这表明在国内航班量稳步增长时,空中危险接近事件的数量不变,事故率越来越低;悲观场景时,空中危险接近数量一直处于上升趋势,2021年之前缓慢增长,这表明虽然设备故障率和管制员的防撞培训频率不高,但缩短TCAS(Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System,空中交通预警和防撞系统)反应时间能在短期内明显提高管制员的专注程度,从而延缓空中不安全事件的数量增长,但随着2021年后指挥架次的增加,反应时间越短,空中危险接近事件会越多。
In order to explore the forming process and feedback mechanism of air danger approaching, this paper uses system dynamics method to deeply analyze the complex interactions and feedback effects between air hazards and the influencing factors, and establishes a dynamic model of air danger nearness mechanism, including regulatory services, Human resources and safety three subsystems, the use of Vensim software to simulate it, can predict different scenarios near the risk of changing trends. The results show that in the optimistic scenario, the number of airborne dangerous approaching shows a slowly increasing trend from 2005 to 2015 and remains unchanged after 2015, which shows that the number of airborne dangerous approaching events keeps unchanged and the accident rate increases with the steady growth of domestic flights In the case of pessimistic scenarios, the number of airborne dangerous approaches has been on an upward trend and slowly increased by 2021, indicating that although the failure rate of equipment and the training of controllers in crash avoidance are not high, the TCAS (Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System, Air Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System) response time significantly increased controller focus in the short term, thereby delaying the increase in the number of airborne unsafe incidents, but with the increase in command orders after 2021, the response time was shorter and airborne danger The closer the event will be.