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采用力学方法计算拱坝变形的水压分量和拱坝各水平截面原度方向的平均温度Rm和线性温差Td，但仍用统计方法选取变形的温度因子和时效因子，从而建立拱坝变形混合模型作为预报模型．其中，变形水压分量的计算采用了有限元法和拱架法；Tm和Td的计算，分析了分段水位的选用，气温和水温对变形影响的滞后规律、水温相位差选用等问题．实践证明，该模型具有计算简便，适应性广，预报效果好等特点。
The hydraulic pressure component of arch dam deformation and the average temperature Rm and linear temperature difference Td of arch dam in the horizontal direction are calculated by mechanics method. However, the deformation temperature factor and aging factor are still selected by statistical method to establish the mixed deformation model of arch dam As a forecast model. Among them, the deformation hydraulic component is calculated by finite element method and arch method; Tm and Td calculation, analysis of the selection of sub-level water temperature, temperature and water temperature on the deformation of the hysteresis law, the water temperature phase selection and other issues. Practice has proved that the model has the characteristics of simple calculation, wide adaptability and good forecasting effect.