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采用投入产出分析法,结合部门能源消费数据,从最终需求的角度评估和计算了中国1997年、2002年和2007年的碳排放量、碳排放系数、直接碳排放系数和完全碳排放系数.研究结果表明,金属冶炼及压延加工业、燃气生产和供应业、非金属矿物制品业、电力、热力的生产和供应业、水的生产和供应业以及煤炭开采和洗选业的直接碳排放系数历年均是最高的,能源强度是影响这些行业直接碳排放系数变化的主要因素;金属冶炼及压延加工业、非金属矿物制品业、金属制品业、化学工业、电力、热力的生产和供应业、水的生产和供应业以及煤炭开采和洗选业的完全碳排放系数历年均居前列,中间产品投入和能源强度是影响完全碳排放系数变化的主要因素.针对实证结果,现阶段我国节能减排的重点方向在于调控金属冶炼及压延加工业、化学工业等高碳排放行业,并通过提高能源效率、调整产业结构及优化能源结构来达到降低碳排放系数的目的.
Using the input-output analysis method and the sector energy consumption data, China’s carbon emissions, carbon emission factors, direct carbon emission factors and total carbon emission factors were evaluated and calculated from the perspective of the final demand in 1997, 2002 and 2007. The results of the study show that direct carbon emission factors for metal smelting and rolling, gas production and supply, non-metallic mineral products, electricity and heat production and supply, water production and supply, and coal mining and processing The energy intensity is the main factor that affects the direct carbon emission coefficient change of these industries. The production and supply of metal smelting and rolling processing, non-metallic mineral products, metal products, chemical industry, electricity, heat production, The complete carbon emission coefficient of water production and supply industry and coal mining and washing industry has been in the forefront over the years, and the input of intermediate products and energy intensity are the main factors that affect the change of the full carbon emission coefficient.According to the empirical results, China’s energy conservation and emission reduction The key direction is to regulate metal smelting and rolling processing industry, chemical industry and other high-carbon emissions industry, and through Improve energy efficiency, adjust the industrial structure and optimize the energy structure to achieve the purpose of reducing the carbon emission factor.