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一个地区存在刑事犯罪常态总量,是犯罪规律的客观事实。研究刑事犯罪常态,有利 于客观评估治安状况。常态总量是社会经济发展各种因素的综合反映,解决治安问题需要全社会共同 努力。公安机关对常态总量的影响是有限的,只能将其压到常态总量的低限。广州市公安局采取数学 模型法和专家评估法相结合的办法,预测未来15年内的刑事发案的常态总量,剖析影响全市年刑事 发案常态总量的各种主要因素,取得了初步的研究成果。
The total amount of criminal offenses existing in a region is an objective fact of the criminal law. Studying the normality of criminal criminality is conducive to objectively assessing the state of law and order. The total amount of normal life is a comprehensive reflection of various factors of social and economic development. To solve the problem of public security requires the joint efforts of the whole society. The impact of the public security organs on the normal aggregate amount is limited and can only be reduced to the lower limit of the normal total amount. Guangzhou Municipal Public Security Bureau adopted the combination of mathematical modeling and expert assessment methods to predict the normal amount of criminal offenses in the next 15 years and to analyze the main factors that affect the normal amount of criminal offenses in the whole city and made preliminary research Results.