采用长期肿瘤死亡登记资料 ,分析了某兵工厂 42年职工肿瘤死亡率的变化。 1 95 6～ 1 997年肿瘤粗死亡率为 73 98/ 1 0万 ,占总死亡 2 9 9% ;1 974～ 1 985年与 1 986～ 1 997年肿瘤标化死亡率分别为6 9 77/ 1 0万、 1 2 8 77/ 1 0万 ,略低于全国同期肿瘤死亡水平。主要肿瘤为胃、食管、肝、肺癌。根据肿瘤死亡信息建立的灰色系统理论模型 ,对 1 998～ 2 0 1 0年肿瘤死亡趋势做出区间预测 ,肿瘤死亡随时间推移而升高 ,到 2 0 1 0年肿瘤死亡率预计为 2 98 2 7/ 1 0万 ,肝、肺癌出现迅速升高 ,胃、食管癌亦有上升。 The long-term tumor death registration data was used to analyze the changes in the cancer death rate of employees in an arsenal for 42 years. The crude death rate of tumors from 1959 to 1997 was 739.98 million, which accounted for 299.9% of the total deaths. The tumor-normalized mortality rates from 1974 to 1985 and 1986 to 1997 were 6 9 77, respectively. / 10 000, 1 2 8 77 / 10 000, slightly lower than the national level of tumor deaths over the same period. The main tumors were stomach, esophagus, liver, and lung cancer. According to the gray system theory model established by the tumor death information, the interval prediction of cancer deaths from 1 998 to 2010 was made. The tumor death increased with time, and the tumor mortality was expected to be 2 98 by 2010. 2 7/10 million, liver, lung cancer increased rapidly, stomach, esophageal cancer also increased.