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从中长期看,无论技术创新、经济结构调整、劳动生产率增长,美国仍然较欧洲、日本有更大的优势。对美国经济持乐观估计是有理由的。但美国也有一些较难解决的结构性问题,主要表现在三大赤字上,即贸易赤字、经常账户赤字和最近重新出现的联邦预算赤字。除周期因素外,它们的根子是一个,即美国的高消费和低储蓄,或者说总需求超过总供应。对美国来说,这是一个很伤脑筋的问题,也是目前美国国内保护主义抬头、同贸易伙伴摩擦加剧的原因之一。
In the medium and long term, the United States still has greater advantages over Europe and Japan regardless of technological innovation, economic structural adjustment and labor productivity growth. There is a reason to be optimistic about the U.S. economy. However, there are also some more difficult structural problems in the United States. The three main deficits are the trade deficit, the current account deficit and the recent re-emergence of the federal budget deficit. In addition to cyclical factors, they have one root: the high consumption and low saving in the United States, or the total demand exceeds the total supply. This is a very troubling issue for the United States and one of the reasons for the current upsurge in U.S. domestic protection and increasing friction with its trading partners.