旅游指标建模与预测研究起始于20世纪60年代,已成为旅游研究的热点之一。基于灰色系统理论,以辽宁省滨海6城市2000-2009年入境旅游统计资料为原始数据,建构旅游指标GM(1,1)灰色预测动态模型并进行模型精度检验;对预测结果分析表明,模型预测结果与实际数据基本一致,进而利用该模型对辽宁省滨海6城市2011—2015年入境旅游指标进行预测;最后提出辽宁省滨海6城市入境旅游可持续发展对策。 Tourism index modeling and prediction research began in the 1960s and has become one of the hot spots in tourism research. Based on the gray system theory and the data of inbound tourism from 2000 to 2009 in six seaside cities of Liaoning Province, the gray forecasting dynamic model of tourism index GM (1,1) is constructed and the model accuracy test is carried out. The forecasting results show that the model predicts The results are consistent with the actual data, and then the model is used to predict the inbound tourism index of 6 cities in Liaoning Province from 2011 to 2015. Finally, the countermeasures for the sustainable development of inbound tourism in 6 coastal cities of Liaoning Province are put forward.