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文章利用2001年1月至2010年4月中国信贷市场月度数据,采用最大似然估计方法分析信贷供求,研究中国信贷市场是否存在信贷过度供给现象。实证结果表明:(1)在总量上,2005-2007年存在过度需求,2002-2004年以及2009年特别是2009年1-3月存在过度供给,目前信贷市场基本平衡;(2)在结构上,信贷失衡更多反映在企业部门,居民部门信贷供求失衡比例在[-10%,10%]内波动。
Using the monthly data of China’s credit market from January 2001 to April 2010, the article uses the maximum likelihood estimation method to analyze the credit supply and demand, and studies whether there is over credit in China’s credit market. The empirical results show that: (1) In the aggregate, there is excess demand in 2005-2007, over-supply in 2002-2004 and 2009, especially January-March 2009, and the credit market is basically balanced; (2) On the other hand, the imbalance of credit is more reflected in the imbalance between the supply and demand of credit in the corporate sector and in the household sector, fluctuating within [-10% and 10%].