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根据贝叶斯理论,本文提出基桩检测合格率概率分布模型,推导出其先验分布和后验分布均服从Beta分布,并引入基桩检测合格率可靠度指标作为评估基桩质量的标准。从由4305个工程、128651根桩的检测信息组成的历史检测大数据中,选取150个典型工程作为样本集对深圳某工程的高应变检测合格率进行可靠度分析,得到的可靠度指标大于目标可靠度指标,认为此桩基工程高应变检测合格。可靠度分析的引入,充分利用了历史检测大数据,克服了现有检测方法仅用一次检测数据进行质量评估的缺点,使得桩基工程质量评估更加科学合理,可为今后的工程实际和规范修编提供参考。
According to the Bayesian theory, this paper presents a probability distribution model of passing rate of pile testing, deduces that both the prior distribution and the posterior distribution follow the Beta distribution, and the reliability index of pile passing rate is introduced as the standard to evaluate the pile quality. From the historical test data composed of the detection information of 4305 projects and 128651 piles, 150 typical projects were selected as the sample set to conduct the reliability analysis of the high-strain test pass rate of a project in Shenzhen. The reliability index obtained was larger than the target Reliability index, that the high-strain pile foundation project testing qualified. The introduction of reliability analysis makes full use of the historical test of big data, overcomes the shortcomings of the existing test method using only one test data for quality assessment, makes the pile foundation engineering quality assessment more scientific and reasonable, and can be used for future engineering practice and standardization For reference.