中国正经历一轮新的银行压力测试,而房地产价格下跌定会成为测试变量之一。之前的官方或非官方的压力测试均低估了房地产价格下跌对银行业的风险。例如,近期交通银行金融研究中心的一篇报告就预估:房地产价格下降幅度在30%以内几乎不会对银行系统的不良贷款率(NPL)产生影响。甚至房产价格下跌40%-50%也仅仅会使不良贷款率增加3.8-5.6个百分点。目前商业银行的不良贷款率为1%。如果考虑房产价格的最大跌幅,即房产价格 China is experiencing a new round of bank stress tests, and falling real estate prices will be one of the test variables. Previous official or unofficial stress tests underestimated the risk to the banking industry from falling real estate prices. For example, a recent report by Bank of Communications Financial Research Center estimated that a 30% drop in real estate prices would have little impact on the NPL of the banking system. Even a 40% -50% fall in real estate prices will only increase the non-performing loan ratio by 3.8-5.6 percentage points. At present, commercial banks have a non-performing loan ratio of 1%. If you consider the biggest decline in real estate prices, that is, real estate prices