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目的分析新疆克拉玛依市乙型肝炎的流行病学特征,掌握流行动态,为制定有效的防控措施提供依据。方法运用描述流行病学方法,分析2008年1月─2013年12月克拉玛依市乙型肝炎病例资料,采用Spss 18.0软件构建ARIMA复合季节模型预测2014年1─12月的发病率。结果 6年间克拉玛依市共报告乙型肝炎2 340例,年均发病率101.49/10万;全市4个区均有病例报告,其区内兵团所属部分农牧团场也有病例报告,不同地区病例分布差异有统计学意义(χ2=133.599,P<0.01),无聚集性疫情发生;发病没有明显的季节波动,以3月发病率最高,为9.91/10万,11月发病率最低,为6.91/10万;高发年龄组为30~49岁,共1 298例,占发病总数的55.47%;男性发病高于女性;以工人最多,占发病总数的31.24%;2014年预测全年发病数为285例,平均发病率6.28/10万。结论克拉玛依市乙型肝炎的发病处于下降态势,且有明显的年龄、性别差异,建议公共卫生专业技术人员依据疫情预测及时做好防控工作。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B in Karamay, Xinjiang, master the epidemic dynamics and provide evidence for effective prevention and control measures. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the data of hepatitis B patients in Karamay from January 2008 to December 2013. The incidence of January-December 2014 was estimated using the software ARSSA model with Spss 18.0 software. Results In the past 6 years, a total of 2340 cases of hepatitis B were reported in Karamay City, with an average annual incidence of 101.49 / 100000. There were reports of cases in 4 districts of the city and some cases of pastoral groups and farms belonging to the Corps in the district were also reported. Cases were distributed in different regions The difference was statistically significant (χ2 = 133.599, P <0.01), no cluster epidemic occurred; there was no significant seasonal fluctuations in incidence, the highest incidence in March was 9.91 / 100 000, the lowest incidence in November was 6.91 / 10 000; high incidence age group 30 to 49 years old, a total of 1 298 cases, accounting for 55.47% of the total incidence; male incidence is higher than that of females; with the largest number of workers, accounting for 31.24% of the total number of cases; 2014 annual forecast incidence of 285 For example, the average incidence of 6.28 / 100000. Conclusions The incidence of hepatitis B in Karamay City is in a declining trend with significant differences in age and sex. It is suggested that public health professionals and technicians should make timely and effective prevention and control work according to the epidemic prediction.