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90年代已经过去两年了。从这两年的国际商品市场情况,预测今后八年的国际商品市场趋势。大致如下: 一、世界贸易增长率将达到5％以上,高于世界经济增长率。进入90年代后,世界贸易增长率达到4.5％,估计后八年还会保持上升势头,达到6％以上.二、世界贸易商品结构中,制成品的比重将继续上升,初级产品比重趋于下降。80年代,世界贸易总额中制成品的比重由56％上升到73％以上。进入90年代以后,这种趋势仍在继续。三、初级产品市场疲软,原料将供过于求。出现这一趋势的主要原因,是科技进步使制造业的单位产品原料耗用量减少,以及合成原料取代天然原料。
Two years have passed since the 1990s. From the situation of the international commodity markets in these two years, the trend of international commodity markets in the next eight years is forecasted. It is roughly as follows: 1. The growth rate of world trade will reach more than 5%, which is higher than the world economic growth rate. After entering the 1990s, the world trade growth rate reached 4.5%, and it is estimated that it will maintain the upward trend for more than 6% in the next eight years. Second, in the world trade commodity structure, the proportion of finished products will continue to rise, and the proportion of primary products will tend to decline. In the 1980s, the share of manufactured goods in total world trade rose from 56% to more than 73%. After entering the 1990s, this trend continues. Third, the primary product market is weak, and raw materials will be oversupply. The main reason for this trend is that the advancement of science and technology has reduced the consumption of raw materials for the unit products of the manufacturing industry, and synthetic raw materials have replaced natural raw materials.