农业支出是我国预算支出中的一个重要组成部分,尽管规模仍较小,但由于涉及民生从而需要对它的算编制加以分析。本文利用VAR模型对1952~2006年中国预算内农业支出及其构成之间的关系进行实证研究,主要分析和研究了以下问题:(1)经济增长与农业支出及其构成的因果关系;(2)根据因果检验,建立农业支出的VAR模型;(3)通过脉冲响应函数分析各变量增长率冲击下另一个变量增长率的响应,通过方差分解分析该对变量增长率变动的贡献率。由此使得我国农业支出及其构成的预算编制有一个数量上的参考,并对各因素之间的相互影响的反应和程度进行初步探索,或许对预算编制及研究有所参考。 Agricultural expenditure is an important part of China’s budget expenditure. Although its scale is still small, its expenditure needs to be analyzed due to its people’s livelihood. This paper uses VAR model to make an empirical study on the relationship between agricultural expenditure and its composition in China’s budget from 1952 to 2006. The main problems are analyzed as follows: (1) the causal relationship between economic growth and agricultural expenditure and its composition; (2) (3) The impulse response function is used to analyze the response of the growth rate of another variable under the impact of the growth rate of each variable. The variance rate of contribution to the change of the growth rate of the variables is analyzed by variance decomposition. Therefore, the agricultural expenditure in our country and the composition of its budget have a quantitative reference, and the interaction between the factors and the degree of preliminary exploration, may have some reference to the budget preparation and research.