综合分析了目前使用的效能评估方法和模型 ,分析了它们使用范围和存在的问题 ,并针对导弹武器系统提出了一种新的评估方法———概率矩阵法。该方法克服了现有方法的局限性 ,它既可以评价某一具体战场环境下的效能 ,也可以综合评价导弹武器系统在某一类战场环境 (或某国的防御体系 )下的效能 The present methods and models of effectiveness evaluation are analyzed synthetically. The scope of application and the existing problems are analyzed. A new evaluation method - probability matrix method is proposed for missile weapon system. This method overcomes the limitations of the existing methods by both evaluating the effectiveness of a specific battlefield environment and evaluating the effectiveness of the missile weapon system in a certain type of battlefield environment (or defensive system of a certain country)