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近期,债券收益率短暂下行后反弹明显,资金面有所收紧以及债券代持违规事件持续发酵对现券走势造成一定影响。进入5月份,预计债市利空因素大于利好,市场整体或呈弱势向下的格局。一方面,当前债券收益率已经普遍偏低,且不具有资产相对估值优势;另一方面,上半年国内物价、经济基本面的债市利好因素已逐一兑现。除了海外避险情绪波动外,上半年的债市利好因素几乎已经出尽。
Recently, the bond yields rebounded significantly after a brief downturn. The tightening of funds surface and the continuous fermentation of irregularities in bond repayments have caused certain impact on the spot coupons. Into May, the bad market is expected to bear more negative factors, the overall market was showing a pattern of weakness. On the one hand, the current bond yields have generally been low, and do not have the relative advantage of asset valuation; the other hand, the first half of the domestic price, the fundamentals of the bond market positive factors have been honored one by one. In addition to the volatility of overseas hedging sentiment, the favorable factors in the first half of the bond market have almost been exhausted.