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作者模拟了不同纯时间贴现率和不同减排方案对全球及各国福利的影响。结果发现:不减排方案下,与纯时间贴现率为1.5%时相比,当纯时间贴现率为0.1%时,全球累积效用变大,其中发展中国家的累积效用值变化较大;当纯时间贴现率为3%时,全球累积效用变小,同样也是发展中国家的累积效用值变化较大。不同的减排方案对各国的福利值也会产生不同影响,总体来看,Nordhaus方案下,俄罗斯和印度的累积福利受到的负面影响最大,其次是中等偏上收入国家;Stern方案下,印度、中等偏下收入国家、中等偏上收入国家和俄罗斯的累积福利都会受到较大的负面影响,中国的累积福利的损失率不断增大;WZW方案下,印度、俄罗斯和中等偏上收入国家的累积福利都受到较大的负面影响,欧盟和日本的累积福利受到的影响最小;三种减排方案下,欧盟和日本的累积福利受到的影响均较小。
The authors model the impact of discounting rates at different pure times and different mitigation options on global and national welfare. The results show that global cumulative utility becomes larger when the discount rate of pure time is 0.1% compared with the time-only discount rate of 1.5%, and the cumulative utility value of the developing countries varies greatly. When the pure time discount rate is 3%, the global cumulative utility becomes smaller, and also the cumulative utility value of developing countries varies greatly. Different schemes have different impacts on the welfare of all countries. Overall, under the Nordhaus scheme, Russia and India have the most negative cumulative benefits, followed by middle-income countries. Under the Stern scheme, India, The cumulative welfare benefits of lower-middle-income countries, middle-income upper-income countries and Russia will be greatly negatively affected and the cumulative loss rate of China’s accumulated benefits will continue to grow. Under the WZW program, India, Russia and the upper-middle income countries Welfare and welfare were all greatly negatively affected, while the cumulative welfare of the EU and Japan was the least affected. Under the three emission reduction programs, the cumulative welfare of the EU and Japan was less affected.