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20世纪20年代至今,农户借贷动机的动态演进轨迹经历了生存性借贷、抑制性借贷、投机性借贷、消费性借贷、生产性借贷五种形态。五种形态之间的转化并不是无条件的,它受到两个外在条件的制约和推动:一是农民收入水平的不断提高;二是农户投资机会的不断增加。只要原有生产要素投资的收益率增加,只要有很好的投资机会,农户就有激励改变自身的积累和消费结构,不断增加生产性借款用途,从而实现利润最大化。只有投资机会增加,农业比较效益上升,农户借贷动机才能实现从生存性向生产性的根本转变。
From the 1920s to the present, the dynamic evolution of rural households’ motivation to borrow has undergone five forms: survivable borrowing, restraining borrowing, speculative borrowing, consumer borrowing and productive borrowing. The transformation between the five forms is not unconditional. It is constrained and promoted by two external conditions. First, the income level of peasants is constantly increasing. Second, the peasants’ investment opportunities are constantly increasing. As long as the rate of return on the investment of former factors of production increases, as long as there are good investment opportunities, farmers have the incentive to change their own accumulation and consumption structure and increase the use of productive loans in order to maximize profits. Only when the investment opportunities increase and the comparative benefits of agriculture rise, farmers’ motivation for borrowing can realize the fundamental transformation from survivability to productiveness.