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目的预测甘肃省2012—2020年农村地区医护人员数量及需求变化情况,为区域卫生人力规划提供参考依据。方法收集2003—2011年甘肃省农村人口及医护人员的基础数据,运用人力人口比值法对甘肃省2012—2020年的农村医护人员需求量及缺口进行预测。结果甘肃省2003—2011年农村地区每千人口执业(助理)医师和注册护士的平均年增长率分别为1.74%和5.27%;到2020年,甘肃省农村地区执业(助理)医师和注册护士的预测值分别是23 810和21 763人,与《医药卫生中长期人才发展规划(2011—2020年)》相比,仍将存在15 253和36 645人的缺口。结论甘肃省2012—2020年农村地区医护人员数量将逐年增加,供需缺口虽有缩小却将持续存在。
Objective To predict the number of health care workers in rural areas in 2012-2020 in Gansu Province and their changes in demand, and provide reference for the planning of regional health workforce. Methods The basic data of rural population and medical staff in Gansu Province from 2003 to 2011 were collected and the demand and the gap of rural medical staff from 2012 to 2020 in Gansu Province were predicted by the ratio of human to population. Results The average annual growth rates of practicing (assistant) physicians and registered nurses per 1000 population in rural areas of Gansu Province in 2003-2011 were 1.74% and 5.27% respectively. By 2020, practicing (assistant) physicians and registered nurses in rural areas of Gansu Province The projections are 23 810 and 21 763 respectively. Compared with the Medium and Long-Term Talent Development Plan for Medicine and Health (2011-2020), there will still be a gap of 15 253 and 36 645 people. Conclusion The number of healthcare workers in rural areas in Gansu Province during 2012-2020 will increase year by year, while the gap between supply and demand will continue to exist.