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日前中国统计局公布,2012年中国GDP增长率为7.8%。这是中国1999年以来年度GDP增长率第一次低于8%,也是1998年以后最低年度增长率。这个简单的事实对比,或许会引发对中国经济增长前景偏于悲观的推测与联想。然而,把去年中国宏观经济表现与世纪之交情形简单类比并不适当。给定内外现实环境,中国去年7.8%增长率大体合理合意。
Recently, China National Bureau of Statistics announced that in 2012 China’s GDP growth rate was 7.8%. This is the first time that China’s annual GDP growth rate has fallen below 8% since 1999, the lowest annual growth rate since 1998. This simple comparison of facts may lead to speculation and associations that are gloomy prospects for China’s economic growth. However, a simple analogy between last year’s macroeconomic performance in China and the turn of the century was not appropriate. Given the reality inside and outside the environment, China’s 7.8% growth rate last year, generally reasonable and desirable.