根据长输管道系统风险的成因、危害以及所具有的灰色特性,结合国内环境条件、运行状况和管理水平等实际情况,采用灰色关联理论与熵权法相结合的评价模型,对长输管道风险评价作定量的研究,确定了长管道系统的主导风险因素的风险排序。为了降低主观因素的影响,合理优化评价过程,在借鉴长输气管道风险理论研究成果的基础上,首先运用专家评分体系对长输管道系统进行评分,计算出各个风险因素的指标值。将得到的指标值分别运用传统的灰色关联理论模型和熵权改进的灰色理论模型来计算,最后将两组计算结果进行对比研究,证明两种方法的结合使用得出的结果更加客观合理。 According to the causes, hazards and the gray characteristics of the long-distance pipeline system, combined with the actual conditions of the domestic environmental conditions, operational status and management level, this paper uses the gray correlation theory and entropy method to evaluate the risk of long-distance pipeline Quantitative research identified the risk ranking of the dominant risk factors for long pipeline systems. In order to reduce the influence of subjective factors and optimize the evaluation process reasonably, based on the research results of long-distance gas pipeline risk theory, firstly, the expert rating system is used to score the long-distance pipeline system, and the index values ​​of each risk factor are calculated. The calculated index values ​​are calculated by using the traditional gray relational theory model and the gray theoretical model improved by the entropy weight respectively. Finally, the comparison between the two sets of calculation results shows that the combined result of the two methods is more objective and reasonable.