20世纪 90年代初的那场震惊世界的剧变至今仍然让我们记忆犹新 ,几乎在一夜之间 ,一个曾经堪与美国抗衡的超级大国就这样轰然倒下了 ,留给人们无尽的遐想空间 ,也让我们对社会主义改革和发展的路径选择问题有了进一步的认识。究竟是什么原因造成了苏联的解体 ,俄罗斯的出路在哪里 ,俄罗斯何时才能真正地走出经济衰退、社会混乱的泥沼 ?这些都成了俄罗斯国内乃至世界的经济学家、社会学家思考的问题。本文着眼于未来 ,力求对未来制约俄罗斯经济发展的因素做出准确、客观的分析 ,希望能以“他国”为鉴 ,对我国的改革大业起到一定的警示作用 The upheaval of the world in the early 1990s still reminds us of the upheard. Almost overnight, a superpower once contested with the United States came to an end and left us with endless reverie space. Let us also have a further understanding of the issue of the path of socialist reform and development. What exactly led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union and where was Russia’s exit? When will Russia really get out of the downturn and the chaos of social chaos? All these have become problems that economists and sociologists in Russia and in the world think . This paper looks forward to the future and seeks to make an accurate and objective analysis of the factors restricting Russia’s economic development in the future. It hopes to learn from “other countries” and give some warning to the great cause of our country’s reform.