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灰色预测理论是80年代发展起来的一门新理论,在水利行业广泛应用于水资源利用的规划、决策、方案评价和运行管理。灰色预测模型的预测精度直接关系到水资源利用规划、决策的效果和成败。对灰色预测模型进行残差修正,是提高预测精度的有效方法。一阶单变量灰色预测简称GM(1,1)模型,是灰色预测模型中最基本最常用的模型。本文主要介绍GM(1,1)模型的残差修正程序和残差修正中应注意的问题。1 残差修正的程序由于灰色预测模型的残差修正,名词术语多,计算复杂,
Gray prediction theory is a new theory developed in the 1980s. It is widely used in water resources planning, decision-making, program evaluation and operation management in the water conservancy industry. The prediction accuracy of gray prediction model is directly related to the planning of water resources utilization, the effectiveness and success of decision-making. The residual error correction of the gray prediction model is an effective method to improve the prediction accuracy. The first-order univariate gray forecasting GM (1,1) model is the most basic and most commonly used model in the gray forecasting model. This article mainly introduces the residual correction procedure of GM (1,1) model and the problems to be noticed in the residual correction. 1 residual error correction program due to the gray prediction model residual correction, terminology and more complicated calculation,